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Chitika

Monday, February 20, 2012

Euro Zone Ministers Set to OK Greece Bailout Monday

Euro zone finance ministers look set to approve a bailout package for Greece on Monday although final details are still being worked out, Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said on Sunday. Asked in a television interview if she thought a deal would come together on Monday and Greece would stay in the euro zone, she said: "At the moment it appears it will go exactly this way." She added: "I don't think there is a majority to go a different way because a different way is enormously arduous and costs lots and lots of money." Greece's cabinet on Saturday approved a final set of austerity steps sought by the EU and IMF as a condition for a 130 billion euro ($171 billion) rescue package, raising chances of a deal to avert a chaotic debt default. "To get this second (rescue) program in place some conditions need to met and this 130 billion has to be financed. This is what is being grappled with now," Fekter said. The discussions included how much the private sector would contribute, how much will come from the EFSF and ESM safety nets the euro zone has set up, and how much leverage the rescue funds can manage to arrange, she said. "And above all it is very strictly coupled to conditions that the Greeks must fulfil. For example what is still being discussed now is what in future should supervise (the process) so that the growth path in Greece can be pursued." At present the "Troika" of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund oversee how well Greece complies with conditions for bailout money, she said. "It will be discussed intensely whether these control instruments remain intact or if we create a new control instrument to accompany the Greeks' reform path," she said. As long as the Greek parliament backs reforms that will eventually put Greece back on its feet after a long, painful reform drive, Europe will stand by Athens, she said. "The euro finance ministers and, I believe, the heads of government agree that we will not leave Greece in the lurch in the euro zone and also won't throw it out," she said. Even exiting the euro zone would not solve Greece's problems because Athens would retain a huge debt in euros that would be even harder to repay in devalued drachmas, Fekter said. And if weaker euro zone countries drop out, then the ones left in a hard core would see exports suffer from a strong currency, just as Switzerland has seen with the strong franc. "I can understand that this scenario is discussed but it is not the better (way)," Fekter said. In a separate interview with Austria's Kurier paper at the weekend, EU Justice Minister Viviane Reding also said fellow EU members would rally around Athens in its hour of need. "Greece cannot go bust, we don't want this," she said, noting the EU treaty has determined the euro is irreversible. Asked if ministers would sign off on the bailout on Monday, she said: "I am confident they will approve the package, but with conditions. The money cannot flow into a bottomless pit."

1 comment:

  1. Greece will need additional relief if it is to cut its debts to 120 percent of GDP by 2020 and if it doesn't follow through on structural reforms and other measures, its debt could hit 160 percent by 2020, a confidential analysis conducted by the IMF, European Central Bank and European Commission shows.

    The baseline scenario in the 9-page report, obtained exclusively by Reuters, is that Greece will cut its debts to 129 percent of GDP by 2020, well above the 120 percent target.

    "The results point to a need for additional debt relief from the official or private sectors to bring the debt trajectory down," said the report, which is being dicussed by euro zone finance ministers at a meeting in Brussels on Monday to decide on a second financing programme for Greece.
    "There is a fundamental tension between the program objectives of reducing debt and improving competitiveness, in that the internal devaluation needed to restore Greece competitiveness will inevitably lead to a higher debt to GDP ratio in the near term," says the report, dated Feb. 15.
    "In this context, a scenario of particular concern involves internal devaluation through deeper recession (due to continued delays with structural reforms and with fiscal policy and privatisation implementation).

    "This would result in a much higher debt trajectory, leaving debt as high as 160 percent of GDP in 2020. Given the risks, the Greek program may thus remain accident-prone, with questions about sustainability hanging over it," it said.

    The analysis cautioned that Greece may not be able to implement all the necessary changes quickly enough.

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